My new HS recommendations now that the Applicant : Seat ratios have changed
/By Joyce Szuflita
The HS Applicant : Seat ratios are data points that the City provides to give you an idea about how popular a school is. While not SUPER predictive of an outcome, it is all we have to give us a tiny matchstick in the dark.
In previous years, they have been quite steady from year to year, and for some schools so crazy high that they immediately induce panic attacks. For example, last year Eleanor Roosevelt had 75 applicants for each seat. This year results were DRASTICALLY, and almost universally, lower. Had half the population departed for Montauk during Covid? No. The City changed the metrics. This year ElRo’s APP : SEAT ratio is 41:1. Still panic inducing, but significantly lower. You can read more about how to find them, and the changes here.
I have some general recommendations that I make to give families a kind of framework to work within to make a balanced list. They are not based in any science, just my feelings about making a well rounded list. They are generally based on these APP:SEAT numbers, but now that the numbers have changed, my feelings have changed.
So first. the new metrics:
The City takes the total number of applicants for a school (no matter where the students ranked the school), and then subtracts the students who matched to a school they ranked higher. The number remaining is the net number of applicants. Then they divide by the number of seats available (separately for Gen Ed and SWD “students with disabilities”). Thus, the lower and more accurate number.
The City always said that 10:1 was a high demand school, but in the past, that warning was LAUGHABLE since so many schools were 30:1, 50:1, etc. A lot of schools are still CRAZY : 1, but now many very thoughtful, worthy, and popular schools have numbers in the teens, and single digits. This adjustment has made the DoE’s warning mean something, and made many quality schools actually seem within reach.
My new recommendation (not based in any science, just food for thought).
If your student is NOT trying for a Specialized HS (or is not bringing solid practice scores) and/or NOT preparing an audition or portfolio for an arts program and/or you are NOT a student at a 6-12th grade school where you would consider staying for 9th grade : I suggest that you don’t have more than 3 schools that are 10:1 or higher.
If your student is bringing good SHSAT practice scores, and/or is preparing an solid audition or portfolio, and/or is an 8th grade student at a 6-12th grade school where you would consider staying for 9th grade : I suggest that you don’t have more than 6 schools that are 10:1 or higher.
In addition:
If you are not in the Diversity Admissions cohort, keep those schools with high DiA priorities to a minimum. Other people are prioritized over you for a large % of the seats.
If you are not in Group 1 for a screened school that only uses grades and has a very high APP : SEAT ratio, keep those schools to a minimum. The odds may not be on your side.
If you are not in a 6-12th grade school keep those schools to a minimum (the currently attending 8th graders have priority and often take most of those seats.)
…and don’t rank popular schools that don’t give you geographic priority.
